NHL Jeff's Stanley Cup Final Prediction and Analysis

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NHL Jeff's take on the Final Match-Up:
Stanley Cup Finals

(1) Detroit Red Wings vs.(2) Pittsburgh Penguins

Regular Season Series: None

DET Key Players: N. Lidstrom, P. Datsyuk, H. Zetterberg, C. Osgood (G), J. Franzen (pending injury status), B. Rafalski

PIT Key Players: S. Crosby, E. Malkin, M. A. Fleury (G), S. Gonchar, H. Gill, M. Hossa, J. Staal

Well, there is no way I am predicting against my favorite team in the Stanley Cup Finals. I really do think they can win, but I would probably have a much harder time picking with such a great match-up if I wasn't partial to one of the teams. It's great, for the first time in years, to see two teams in the final that many actually consider to be the two best in the game (as opposed to a "Cindarella" low seed, i.e. Edmonton in '06).

Both of these teams have incredible offensive depth. Zetterberg and Datsyuk have done every bit as much as Crosby and Malkin if not more. All have produced offensively, while Malkin may be the only one that doesn't stack up defensively (but comes close). Then there's the ridiculous support each of these teams has for its stars. Pittsburgh has an on-fire Hossa (11 points in last 6 games), a heating up (4 goals last series) Staal, who is one of the best defensive forwards in the league, and likely a future Selke candidate, not to mention Malone, Dupuis, Sykora, etc. The Wings have nearly as, if not as, much offensive depth though, with the likes of Franzen (if he's back from injury), Hudler, Filppula, and Holmstrom to name a few. So, basically these teams can score, but I'm betting on more of that coming from the Penguins due to what is, in my opinion, a little more depth, and the incredible chemistry they've shown throughout this post season so far. Oh, and while we're talking about forwards, both of these teams also feature great grind lines that can also chip in a few goals. Talbot, Ruutu, Kennedy (sometimes...), and Hall have impressed me the most on Pittsburgh's side (Gary Roberts' status luckily hasn't hampered the team). Draper, Drake, Cleary, and McCarty, among others, have been great for Detroit, stunting opponents' offense while also scoring occasionally. Every shift of this series should be entertaining.

Now, what seems to be the real kicker--defense. I was thinking about the disparity, on paper, between the two D-corps, but the Pens' D-men have played surprisingly well throughout the playoffs, and guys that you wouldn’t expect to make timely plays have been doing so. Detroit has a star-studded blueline that includes the best defenseman in the league in Lidstrom. If the Wings are to take the series, it will need to come with a Conn-Smythe-worthy effort from their captain (looking to be the first European to win a cup as captain). Don't forget that they also have Rafalski, Kronwall, and Chelios, among others, who have mostly been very solid. Kronwall has spent a lot of time injured in his young career, but his holding it together so far for the Wings has been a pleasant surprise and he has consistently been one of the best players on the ice. This defense is great, and has enough guys to keep a good d-man on Crosby and Malkin at all-times, so the Pens depth guys may have to come up pretty big. Throughout the playoffs so far, in 17 games, the Wings have gotten 37 points from defensemen, while the Pens, in 14 games, have gotten only 25. So, look for Detroit's D to produce a little more offense than that of the Penguins. The regular Penguins defensive stalwarts, namely Gonchar and Whitney, have been strong, but the rest of the D has been surprisingly solid as well. Hal Gill, a player I normally speak terribly of (see previous post about witnessing his first game as a Pen), has actually been a huge asset to Pittsburgh throughout the playoffs, shutting down some of the league's most skilled players. Letang and Orpik, and Scuderi have also been doing a great job maintaining Coach Therrien's system to ensure that not much gets back to Marc-Andre Fleury. Obviously, the Wings still have the edge when it comes to individual defensemen, but, when you look at how each team's D plays as a unit, I think it may be a little closer than it first seems…

Saving the most important thing for last--goaltending. Detroit's Chris Osgood has the experience and the Cups, and he has been more than stellar since he took over for Dominik Hasek in the first round. Marc-Andre Fleury has been absolutely spectacular for Pittsburgh since returning late in the season from an ankle injury. Neither of these goalies get enough credit because of the great team's in front of them. It can be argued that they don't deserve it as much because of that, but that really isn't true. It is harder to stay sharp for most goaltenders when they don't see many shots, and both of the guys have made huge saves when they've needed to, even if they haven't had to make 40 stops a game. I realize I may seem hypocritical in what I am preparing to write because I do acknowledge that Osgood is underrated and doesn't get enough credit, but I really think Fleury will be the difference in this series. His consistency has been unwavering since he has been back, and he just looks so damn solid and systematic. No longer does he flop around and make every save look spectacular. It seems that he is always in position and always square to the shooter, making the hardest saves look routine. This will finally be a series where Fleury will have to be noticed because he will have one of the best offenses in the league up against him, and I think he will finally prove himself. If the Pens win, the way I see it, the Conn Smythe is still up for grabs by these few people (save a crazy performance by another player in the final): Crosby, Malkin, Fleury, and Hossa. I am a little biased because Sid is my favorite player, but I think it'll be a tight race between Crosby and Fleury, and Fleury will absolutely have to be in the running if Pittsburgh is to win. (if the Wings win, it will have to be Datsyuk, Zetterberg, Lidstrom, or Osgood).

I will not be surprised if the Red Wings win this series, but I will be disappointed. Lidstrom, Rafalski, and Kronwall may be able to shut down Crosby, Malkin, and Hossa, but the Pens depth guys have the ability to step up. Pittsburgh's defensemen are going to hav eto play as one very solid unit to keep the Detroit offense at bay. If Pittsburgh can't at least take one of the first two games, which are in Detroit, it may really hurt their confidence considering their youth and inexperience, but this team just seems too together to let that happen. Both of these teams are great ones that played so remarkably on the path to the final, and I hope that, no matter who wins, both teams play a great series.

Sorry if the analysis seems biased, although it is....

Prediction: Penguins in 6.