NHL Jeff's take on the 3rd Round Match-Ups:
Eastern Conference Finals
(2) Pittsburgh Penguins vs. (6) Philadelphia Flyers
Regular Season Series: PHI 5-3
PIT Key Players: S. Crosby, E. Malkin, M. A. Fleury (G), S. Gonchar, H. Gill, M. Hossa, G. Roberts
PHI Key Players: M. Biron (G), M. Richards, D. Briere, R. Umberger, K. Timonen, B. Coburn, V. Prospal
Despite this series being really hard to predict, I'm sure you all know which way I'll lean,
considering my allegiance to the Penguins. I truly do think they will win this series, but I doubt I would be able to predict against them if I thought otherwise. This should be a rough, action-packed series considering the intense in-state rivalry between these two division foes. Some people are saying that Martin Biron has been better than Marc-Andre Fleury, which is just a blatant lie. Fleury has had some great games and has sparkling numbers. What makes them say this is that, Biron has had to steal some games, especially against the Habs, and has to make many spectacular saves, while Fleury has had to steal maybe only one game because the team in front of him has been much better than the team in front of Biron. Also, since coming back from injury, Fleury has really strengthened his positioning, and now makes even the toughest saves look routine. Unlike early in his career, Fleury is rarely out of position, where as Biron is at times, which causes more of his saves to seem of the incredible variety.Timonen, Coburn, and Hatcher have been strong anchoring the Flyers' D. All of the Pens' D-men have been very good, with Gonchar leading the way. Hal Gill, a player I usually speak very negatively about, has been surprisingly useful during the playoffs. I was very displeased when the Penguins acquired him, and this displeasure continued as I watched him during the regular season, but his play throughout the playoffs has been quite good. To score, the Rangers were focusing on the less aggressive Pens' defensemen, but the Flyers should have less trouble with the tough guys considering their group of bashing forwards. Hatcher and Richards, among others, are sure to work to aggravate Crosby and Malkin, but other than in game 4 of the last series, Pittsburgh has been good about keeping their cool.
As for the forwards, Briere's 14 points in 12 games are no match for Crosby's and Malkin's same total in only 9 games. The forwards on both teams are playing great at the moment and providing their teams with a lot of depth. R.J. Umberger, a player with 13 goals in the regular season, notched 8 goals during the series against Montreal. The Pittsburgh native scored 6 of his 13 regular season goals against the Penguins, so don't expect him to cool off. Crosby is my favorite player, but prepare yourself, I am going to criticize him: despite his 2 assists in the final game of round 2, Crosby did not look to be skating with all of his effort, something I have NEVER seen from him. It is possible that he was trying to keep his emotions in check after losing it once or twice in game 4, but this surely isn't the way to do it. Hopefully he is not injured, and assuming he's not, look for that effort to return in this series. Malkin has been incredible as usual and the best player on the ice, and it is great to see that Hossa has finally turned it on, he was the MVP of the series clinching game 5.
Some analysts have called for a break down of the goaltenders and a high-scoring series. I am thinking that will happen in at least two games, but that Fleury and Biron will remain very strong for the remainder. As I said, I expect the Penguins to come out on top in this series. I went with 7 games because I believe the Pens will need to win it in Pittsburgh, and a 5-game series for a rivalry like this is a stretch.
Prediction: Penguins in 7.
Western Conference Finals
(1) Detroit Red Wings vs. (5) Dallas Stars
Regular Season Series: DET 4-0
DET Key Players: N. Lidstrom, P. Datsyuk, H. Zetterberg, C. Osgood (G), J. Franzen, B. Rafalski
DAL Key Players: M. Turco (G), B. Morrow, S. Zubov, M. Ribeiro, B. Richards, S. Robidas, M. Modano, J. Lehtinen
I had to really think about this one for a while prior to making my prediction. The Stars have been playing so well recently, and the Wings have been consistently good all season, so, what to do? Marty Turco has been playing like THE goalie of the playoffs, and normally if a year has "that goalie," he makes it to the finals (i.e. Giguere in '03, Kiprussoff in '04), but I have come to the conclusion that Detroit's fire power will be too much even for Turco and the Stars. If Franzen's line weren't playing so well, and they only had to stop Datsyuk and Zetterberg for the most part, I'd give the Stars a much longer look. When we compare goaltending, obviously Turco is on top, but Osgood is more than solid and led the league in GAA this season. Plus, it is very likely that the Stars' D-men will give up many more quality opportunities than the Wings' loaded blueline. So, unless Turco finds a way to stop what I expect to be an overwhelming amount of quality opportunities, I can't give the Stars an edge there.
Now, we all know which team is on top on the defensive end. Yes, Zubov, Robidas, and company were great against the Sharks, but the Wings have the best defenseman in the world in Nicklas Lidstrom, not to mention Rafalski, Kronwall, Chelios, Stuart, etc. For the forwards, Morrow has been incredible for Dallas in all aspects of his game. He has scored (7 goals), hit (leads the playoffs with 66), has been a key element during the most important times of the games (2 game winners in the previous series, including the series clincher in 4OT), and he has been an all-around great leader. Ribeiro and playoff-tested Richards have also been huge, while the commitments from veterans Modano and Lehtinen can;t be overlooked. The problem with all of that is, I imagine the Wings' defensive depth will be up for the task of taking on each and every one of those players. On the other hand, when you look at Detroit's balanced attack, compared to the lesser depth on the Stars' back-end, the edge has to go to the guys in red. Not only has Franzen been playing the best hockey of his career, but also Datsyuk and Zetterberg haven't let up one bit and are carrying more than their fair share of the weight. With guys like Hudler, Holmstrom, and Samuelsson also contributing, not to mention the good offensive output from Detroit's D, I really can't bet against them, no matter how much I'd like to see Turco take this.
On another note, the Red Wings are my least favorite team, so it's hard for me to write positively about them. While one side of me wants to cheer for Turco and the Stars, the other side of me wants to cheer for what would be best for the league as a whole, which, in my opinion, would be a Wings-Pens final. The Red Wings are known to have fans all around the US, while the Penguins have been the league's most talked about team since Crosby's arrival. I imagine the TV ratings and attention paid to a Wings-Pens final would be the best in some time. That doesn't mean I'll be cheering for Detroit, but as long as they don't end up winning the Cup...I won't be upset to see them playing for it against my Penguins.
Prediction: Wings in 6.
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