NHL Jeff's Stanley Cup Final Prediction and Analysis

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NHL Jeff's take on the Final Match-Up:
Stanley Cup Finals

(1) Detroit Red Wings vs.(2) Pittsburgh Penguins

Regular Season Series: None

DET Key Players: N. Lidstrom, P. Datsyuk, H. Zetterberg, C. Osgood (G), J. Franzen (pending injury status), B. Rafalski

PIT Key Players: S. Crosby, E. Malkin, M. A. Fleury (G), S. Gonchar, H. Gill, M. Hossa, J. Staal

Well, there is no way I am predicting against my favorite team in the Stanley Cup Finals. I really do think they can win, but I would probably have a much harder time picking with such a great match-up if I wasn't partial to one of the teams. It's great, for the first time in years, to see two teams in the final that many actually consider to be the two best in the game (as opposed to a "Cindarella" low seed, i.e. Edmonton in '06).

Both of these teams have incredible offensive depth. Zetterberg and Datsyuk have done every bit as much as Crosby and Malkin if not more. All have produced offensively, while Malkin may be the only one that doesn't stack up defensively (but comes close). Then there's the ridiculous support each of these teams has for its stars. Pittsburgh has an on-fire Hossa (11 points in last 6 games), a heating up (4 goals last series) Staal, who is one of the best defensive forwards in the league, and likely a future Selke candidate, not to mention Malone, Dupuis, Sykora, etc. The Wings have nearly as, if not as, much offensive depth though, with the likes of Franzen (if he's back from injury), Hudler, Filppula, and Holmstrom to name a few. So, basically these teams can score, but I'm betting on more of that coming from the Penguins due to what is, in my opinion, a little more depth, and the incredible chemistry they've shown throughout this post season so far. Oh, and while we're talking about forwards, both of these teams also feature great grind lines that can also chip in a few goals. Talbot, Ruutu, Kennedy (sometimes...), and Hall have impressed me the most on Pittsburgh's side (Gary Roberts' status luckily hasn't hampered the team). Draper, Drake, Cleary, and McCarty, among others, have been great for Detroit, stunting opponents' offense while also scoring occasionally. Every shift of this series should be entertaining.

Now, what seems to be the real kicker--defense. I was thinking about the disparity, on paper, between the two D-corps, but the Pens' D-men have played surprisingly well throughout the playoffs, and guys that you wouldn’t expect to make timely plays have been doing so. Detroit has a star-studded blueline that includes the best defenseman in the league in Lidstrom. If the Wings are to take the series, it will need to come with a Conn-Smythe-worthy effort from their captain (looking to be the first European to win a cup as captain). Don't forget that they also have Rafalski, Kronwall, and Chelios, among others, who have mostly been very solid. Kronwall has spent a lot of time injured in his young career, but his holding it together so far for the Wings has been a pleasant surprise and he has consistently been one of the best players on the ice. This defense is great, and has enough guys to keep a good d-man on Crosby and Malkin at all-times, so the Pens depth guys may have to come up pretty big. Throughout the playoffs so far, in 17 games, the Wings have gotten 37 points from defensemen, while the Pens, in 14 games, have gotten only 25. So, look for Detroit's D to produce a little more offense than that of the Penguins. The regular Penguins defensive stalwarts, namely Gonchar and Whitney, have been strong, but the rest of the D has been surprisingly solid as well. Hal Gill, a player I normally speak terribly of (see previous post about witnessing his first game as a Pen), has actually been a huge asset to Pittsburgh throughout the playoffs, shutting down some of the league's most skilled players. Letang and Orpik, and Scuderi have also been doing a great job maintaining Coach Therrien's system to ensure that not much gets back to Marc-Andre Fleury. Obviously, the Wings still have the edge when it comes to individual defensemen, but, when you look at how each team's D plays as a unit, I think it may be a little closer than it first seems…

Saving the most important thing for last--goaltending. Detroit's Chris Osgood has the experience and the Cups, and he has been more than stellar since he took over for Dominik Hasek in the first round. Marc-Andre Fleury has been absolutely spectacular for Pittsburgh since returning late in the season from an ankle injury. Neither of these goalies get enough credit because of the great team's in front of them. It can be argued that they don't deserve it as much because of that, but that really isn't true. It is harder to stay sharp for most goaltenders when they don't see many shots, and both of the guys have made huge saves when they've needed to, even if they haven't had to make 40 stops a game. I realize I may seem hypocritical in what I am preparing to write because I do acknowledge that Osgood is underrated and doesn't get enough credit, but I really think Fleury will be the difference in this series. His consistency has been unwavering since he has been back, and he just looks so damn solid and systematic. No longer does he flop around and make every save look spectacular. It seems that he is always in position and always square to the shooter, making the hardest saves look routine. This will finally be a series where Fleury will have to be noticed because he will have one of the best offenses in the league up against him, and I think he will finally prove himself. If the Pens win, the way I see it, the Conn Smythe is still up for grabs by these few people (save a crazy performance by another player in the final): Crosby, Malkin, Fleury, and Hossa. I am a little biased because Sid is my favorite player, but I think it'll be a tight race between Crosby and Fleury, and Fleury will absolutely have to be in the running if Pittsburgh is to win. (if the Wings win, it will have to be Datsyuk, Zetterberg, Lidstrom, or Osgood).

I will not be surprised if the Red Wings win this series, but I will be disappointed. Lidstrom, Rafalski, and Kronwall may be able to shut down Crosby, Malkin, and Hossa, but the Pens depth guys have the ability to step up. Pittsburgh's defensemen are going to hav eto play as one very solid unit to keep the Detroit offense at bay. If Pittsburgh can't at least take one of the first two games, which are in Detroit, it may really hurt their confidence considering their youth and inexperience, but this team just seems too together to let that happen. Both of these teams are great ones that played so remarkably on the path to the final, and I hope that, no matter who wins, both teams play a great series.

Sorry if the analysis seems biased, although it is....

Prediction: Penguins in 6.

Conference Finals Prediction Results

A quick look back at round 3's winners:

Eastern Conference Results
Pittsburgh vs. Philadelphia
Prediction: Penguins in 7
Outcome: Penguins in 5

"I expect the Penguins to come out on top in this series. I went with 7 games because I believe the Pens will need to win it in Pittsburgh, and a 5-game series for a rivalry like this is a stretch."

So, I thought the Pens would win it in 5 or 7, but decided to go with 7 because of the rivalry. Guess I should have gone with 5...


Western Conference Results
Detroit vs. Dallas
Prediction: Detroit in 6
Outcome: Detroit in 6


NHL Jeff's 2008 Playoff Record: 10-4

NHL Jeff's Round 3 Previews and Predictions

Click here for full Round 3 schedule.

NHL Jeff's take on the 3rd Round Match-Ups:
Eastern Conference Finals

(2) Pittsburgh Penguins vs. (6) Philadelphia Flyers

Regular Season Series: PHI 5-3

PIT Key Players: S. Crosby, E. Malkin, M. A. Fleury (G), S. Gonchar, H. Gill, M. Hossa, G. Roberts

PHI Key Players: M. Biron (G), M. Richards, D. Briere, R. Umberger, K. Timonen, B. Coburn, V. Prospal

Despite this series being really hard to predict, I'm sure you all know which way I'll lean, considering my allegiance to the Penguins. I truly do think they will win this series, but I doubt I would be able to predict against them if I thought otherwise. This should be a rough, action-packed series considering the intense in-state rivalry between these two division foes. Some people are saying that Martin Biron has been better than Marc-Andre Fleury, which is just a blatant lie. Fleury has had some great games and has sparkling numbers. What makes them say this is that, Biron has had to steal some games, especially against the Habs, and has to make many spectacular saves, while Fleury has had to steal maybe only one game because the team in front of him has been much better than the team in front of Biron. Also, since coming back from injury, Fleury has really strengthened his positioning, and now makes even the toughest saves look routine. Unlike early in his career, Fleury is rarely out of position, where as Biron is at times, which causes more of his saves to seem of the incredible variety.

Timonen, Coburn, and Hatcher have been strong anchoring the Flyers' D. All of the Pens' D-men have been very good, with Gonchar leading the way. Hal Gill, a player I usually speak very negatively about, has been surprisingly useful during the playoffs. I was very displeased when the Penguins acquired him, and this displeasure continued as I watched him during the regular season, but his play throughout the playoffs has been quite good. To score, the Rangers were focusing on the less aggressive Pens' defensemen, but the Flyers should have less trouble with the tough guys considering their group of bashing forwards. Hatcher and Richards, among others, are sure to work to aggravate Crosby and Malkin, but other than in game 4 of the last series, Pittsburgh has been good about keeping their cool.

As for the forwards, Briere's 14 points in 12 games are no match for Crosby's and Malkin's same total in only 9 games. The forwards on both teams are playing great at the moment and providing their teams with a lot of depth. R.J. Umberger, a player with 13 goals in the regular season, notched 8 goals during the series against Montreal. The Pittsburgh native scored 6 of his 13 regular season goals against the Penguins, so don't expect him to cool off. Crosby is my favorite player, but prepare yourself, I am going to criticize him: despite his 2 assists in the final game of round 2, Crosby did not look to be skating with all of his effort, something I have NEVER seen from him. It is possible that he was trying to keep his emotions in check after losing it once or twice in game 4, but this surely isn't the way to do it. Hopefully he is not injured, and assuming he's not, look for that effort to return in this series. Malkin has been incredible as usual and the best player on the ice, and it is great to see that Hossa has finally turned it on, he was the MVP of the series clinching game 5.

Some analysts have called for a break down of the goaltenders and a high-scoring series. I am thinking that will happen in at least two games, but that Fleury and Biron will remain very strong for the remainder. As I said, I expect the Penguins to come out on top in this series. I went with 7 games because I believe the Pens will need to win it in Pittsburgh, and a 5-game series for a rivalry like this is a stretch.

Prediction: Penguins in 7.


Western Conference Finals

(1) Detroit Red Wings vs. (5) Dallas Stars

Regular Season Series: DET 4-0

DET Key Players: N. Lidstrom, P. Datsyuk, H. Zetterberg, C. Osgood (G), J. Franzen, B. Rafalski

DAL Key Players: M. Turco (G), B. Morrow, S. Zubov, M. Ribeiro, B. Richards, S. Robidas, M. Modano, J. Lehtinen

I had to really think about this one for a while prior to making my prediction. The Stars have been playing so well recently, and the Wings have been consistently good all season, so, what to do? Marty Turco has been playing like THE goalie of the playoffs, and normally if a year has "that goalie," he makes it to the finals (i.e. Giguere in '03, Kiprussoff in '04), but I have come to the conclusion that Detroit's fire power will be too much even for Turco and the Stars. If Franzen's line weren't playing so well, and they only had to stop Datsyuk and Zetterberg for the most part, I'd give the Stars a much longer look. When we compare goaltending, obviously Turco is on top, but Osgood is more than solid and led the league in GAA this season. Plus, it is very likely that the Stars' D-men will give up many more quality opportunities than the Wings' loaded blueline. So, unless Turco finds a way to stop what I expect to be an overwhelming amount of quality opportunities, I can't give the Stars an edge there.

Now, we all know which team is on top on the defensive end. Yes, Zubov, Robidas, and company were great against the Sharks, but the Wings have the best defenseman in the world in Nicklas Lidstrom, not to mention Rafalski, Kronwall, Chelios, Stuart, etc. For the forwards, Morrow has been incredible for Dallas in all aspects of his game. He has scored (7 goals), hit (leads the playoffs with 66), has been a key element during the most important times of the games (2 game winners in the previous series, including the series clincher in 4OT), and he has been an all-around great leader. Ribeiro and playoff-tested Richards have also been huge, while the commitments from veterans Modano and Lehtinen can;t be overlooked. The problem with all of that is, I imagine the Wings' defensive depth will be up for the task of taking on each and every one of those players. On the other hand, when you look at Detroit's balanced attack, compared to the lesser depth on the Stars' back-end, the edge has to go to the guys in red. Not only has Franzen been playing the best hockey of his career, but also Datsyuk and Zetterberg haven't let up one bit and are carrying more than their fair share of the weight. With guys like Hudler, Holmstrom, and Samuelsson also contributing, not to mention the good offensive output from Detroit's D, I really can't bet against them, no matter how much I'd like to see Turco take this.

On another note, the Red Wings are my least favorite team, so it's hard for me to write positively about them. While one side of me wants to cheer for Turco and the Stars, the other side of me wants to cheer for what would be best for the league as a whole, which, in my opinion, would be a Wings-Pens final. The Red Wings are known to have fans all around the US, while the Penguins have been the league's most talked about team since Crosby's arrival. I imagine the TV ratings and attention paid to a Wings-Pens final would be the best in some time. That doesn't mean I'll be cheering for Detroit, but as long as they don't end up winning the Cup...I won't be upset to see them playing for it against my Penguins.

Prediction: Wings in 6.

Round 2 Series Prediction Results

A quick look back at round 2's winners:

Eastern Conference Results
Montreal vs. Philadelphia
Prediction: Canadiens in 6.
Outcome: Flyers in 5.
Martin Biron and R.J. Umberger stole this series for the Flyers, while Habs' goaltender Carey Price got rattled.

Pittsburgh Native R.J. Umberger

will look to continue his scoring
ways against his hometown team

Pittsburgh vs. NY Rangers
Prediction: Penguins in 7.
Outcome: Penguins in 5.

Western Conference Results
Detroit vs. Colorado
Prediction: Detroit in 6
Outcome: Detroit in 4

San Jose vs. Dallas
Prediction: Sharks in 6
Outcome: Stars in 6

This series WILL be a goaltender's duel [...] I was thinking about predicting seven games, but I see the goalie of whichever team has the 3-2 lead taking advantage of it and taking the series.

Looks like I was right about that, Marty Turco definitely won game 6 for the Stars, I just picked the wrong goallie to steal game 6...


NHL Jeff's 2008 Playoff Record: 8-4