It's been a long break, but NHLNow.com is back for the most exciting season of the year: NHL Playoff Season. The battle for Lord Stanley's Cup is on, and with the depth in this year's playoffs, it seems to be any of the 16 playoff contenders' to lose. For each round of the Playoffs, NHL Jeff will analyze every match-up and follow with his prediction of the winner and in how many games.
Can Giggy and the Ducks repeat?
NHL Jeff's 2007 Playoff Prediction Record:
10-5 (4 wins with exact game counts)
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Click here for full Round 1 scheduleNHL Jeff's take on the 1st Round Match-Ups:
Eastern Conference Quarterfinals
(1)Montreal Canadiens vs. (8) Boston Bruins
Regular Season Series: MTL 8-0
MTL Key Players: S. Koivu, C. Price (G), A. Kovalev, A. Markov, M. Komisarek
BOS Key Players: T. Thomas (G), Z. Chara, M. Savard, M. Sturm
Alright, I live in Boston and get to watch the Bruins live quite frequently. They just don't match up well against the Habs. I am not going to say they have no chance, but saying they do have one may be a stretch...I tend to agree when people say that season series doesn't really mean much come playoff time, but this Montreal team absolutely dominated the Bruins during many of their games and came out on top every time. The Bruins are likely upset about that and will be out to prove something in this great original-six rivalry. Habs Captain Saku Koivu has been battling a foot injury and is questionable for the start of the series. Montreal is a team that really feeds off of its captain, and if Koivu can't come back, they could run into some trouble, although I'm not sure it'd be enough trouble to lose the series. Also worrisome for Montreal is the status of defenseman Mike Komisarek. He is a huge, underrated asset on the Canadiens' blueline and if he isn't back, there will be a noticeable hole that someone will need to step up and fill. Carey Price will obviously need to be huge in goal, and given his history (WJC champion, AHL Calder Cup Champ last year), he can definitely step it up in high-pressure times--he shouldn't provide any worries. Now, for the Bruins, they'll need to stick to their defensive game and not get rattled when the going gets tough. Despite their defensive game, the Bruins surprisingly have struggled on the penalty kill, and that won't serve them well against Montreal's powerplay. Tim Thomas will have to be consistent in giving the amazing effort he is capable of. He has outright stolen some games for the B's this year, but been mediocre in others. Zdeno Chara will have to be the usual force on the blueline, but the most important thing for Boston will be where they are usually lacking--offense. If Marc Savard can't make his way back onto the ice from a back injury, I don't think the Bruins will be able to compete much at all offensively against a Montreal team that has a lot of firepower (MTL outscored BOS 39-16 in their 8 games this season). If Patrice Bergeron can return from an October concussion, that should provide a little boost, but don't expect him to immediately be his flashy self again. Marco Sturm will need to step up his offensive game as well, but the Bruins don't really seem to have enough secondary scoring to make this a good series.
Prediction: Canadiens in 5.
(2) Pittsburgh Penguins vs. (7) Ottawa Senators
Regular Season Series: OTT 3-1
PIT Key Players: S. Crosby, E. Malkin, M. A. Fleury (G), S. Gonchar, R. Whitney, M. Hossa, G. Roberts
OTT Key Players: D. Alfredsson (pending injury status), D. Heatley, M. Gerber (G), R. Emery (G), J. Spezza, W. Redden, A. Volchenkov
I am biased. I am a huge Pens fan, but either way, it's tough to pick against them in this one considering the current state of the Ottawa Senators. After roaring out of the gate following their Stanley Cup Final loss, the Senators have been pretty much terrible in the second half. Many attribute this to the antics of goaltender Ray Emery, injuries, and lack of motivation. No matter what it is, they are a complete mess. I do realize that some teams have previously gone into the playoffs in that state and done a complete 180 once they've gotten there, but due to the doubtful status of captain Daniel Alfredsson and Mike Fisher due to injury, I don't see that happening for this team. I listed Emery as a key player because, despite the fact that Gerber is expected to get most of the playing time, if Emery can maintain a positive attitude on the bench and in the locker room, I think it can help the Sens a lot. Now, on the flip side, the Pittsburgh Penguins have been playing some great hockey. Not even a long-term injury to captain and NHL star Sidney Crosby could keep them out of the running for the Eastern Conference title (they just missed it and finished 2nd to Montreal). Crosby's injury lit a fire under Evgeni Malkin, which led to him being the league's second leading-scorer. M.A. Fleury was down too, but Ty Conklin held the fort superbly, and now that Fleury is back, he is playing the best hockey of his career with great poise and confidence. Gonchar has been lighting it up from the blueline, and the Penguins defensive core has been getting stronger on the back-end all season. Ryan Whitney has been a bit inconsistent lately, but I imagine the former Boston University Terrier will step it up for the playoffs this season. After losing to the Sens in a tough 4-1 series last year, I don't think Crosby and the Pens will accept further disappointment. So, with Crosby back and Fleury playing strong between the pipes, look for the Pens to take this series over the struggling Sens.
Prediction: Pens in 6.
(3) Washington Capitals vs. (6) Philadelphia Flyers
Regular Season Series: TIE 2-2
WSH Key Players: A. Ovechkin, C. Huet (G), M. Green, A. Semin, N. Backstrom, T. Poti
PHI Key Players: M. Richards, D. Briere, M. Biron (G), K. Timonen, B. Coburn, J. Smith
OVECHKIN, Ovechkin, Ovechkin! Wow! Did he ever lead the charge into the playoffs for the Caps?! This team is way too amped to lose. Washington's depth, although in my opinion not enough for a deep playoff run, is underestimated. Cristobal Huet has been incredible in goal, while obviously Alex Ovechkin has led the way on the scoresheet. Ovechkin is not the only one on the scoresheet though, as rookie Nicklas Backstrom has been piling up the points. Alex Semin has an icredible speed and skill, and his wrist shot is nearly unbelievable. Mike Green has turned into a star on the blueline this season, and former Boston University Terrier (had to plug my school) Tom Poti is the veteran anchoring the rest of the defensive core. Considering the crowds at the last few games of the season, the home-ice advantage shoudl truly be that for the Caps. If any two can take this team through a playoff round, it's Head Coach Bruce Boudreau and Ovechkin. Now that my Caps rant is over, let's get on to their formidable opponent, the Philadelphia Flyers. I do believe that Washington will win, but I didn't say it would be easy. This Philadelphia team boasts a star-studded roster with plenty of grit. Simon Gagne has been out most of the season, but they've still found a way to win. Daniel Briere boosted his offense to an extra degree down the stretch, and this will be a huge asset to the Flyers should he be able to keep it up. Mike Richards has been giant for them this season at both ends of the ice, if they were to win the Cup, I'd expect his name to be engraved next on the Conn Smythe Trophy. Their defense, anchored by Kimmo Timonen, Braydon Coburn, and captain Jason Smith, is also very strong, but not strong enough to stymie Ovechkin to the necessary degree. Lastly, Martin Biron's inconsistency and lack of playoff experience has to be a worry. Had it only been the lack of playoff experience, I would be less worried for Philly, but Biron has been very streaky this season, and they'll have to hope for one of the hot streaks if they want to beat the high-powered Caps. Should be a long, tough, exciting series.
Prediction: Caps in 7.
Update 4/9/08, 3:30pm: I've been really thinking about this series. More and more I keep thinking that this Caps team is so much like last year's Penguins team in that they are doing well going into the playoffs, everyone is hyped up about them, but they're so young and even more inexperienced. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Flyers takes this one, although I am not changing my prediction.
(4) New Jersey Devils vs. (5) New York Rangers
Regular Season Series: NYR 7-1
NJ Key Players: M. Brodeur (G), Z. Parise, P. Elias, P. Martin, M. Mottau, B. Salvador, J. Madden, J. Langenbrunner,
NYR Key Players: H. Lundqvist (G), J. Jagr, S. Gomez, C. Drury, M. Rozsival, D. Girardi
Can't bet against, suspect offense, holes on D.
It's pretty hard to bet against Martin Brodeur and someone with his pedigree, especially when he is still playing like the best goaltender in the world. The problem is, the defense in front of him has so many holes and is so inexperienced, that it's tough to think that even Marty could hold up throughout the playoffs behind them. Paul Martin, Mike Mottau, Bryce Slavador and the rest of the Devils' D are going to have a lot of work to do, even on a Rangers team that has been surprisingly sub-par on offense this season. Head Coach Brent Sutter has been working wonders and putting his own influences on the traditional Lou Lamoriello, Devils system, but we'll have to see if that is enough in the playoffs. Zach Parise has been the only top offensive player not really underachieving for Jersey, so if they are looking to win, they'll need a boost of offense form Patrik Elias, and superb leadership from playoff-tested captain Jamie Langenbrunner. On the Rangers' side, they've also got a star goalie. Lundqvist is no Brodeur, but he definitely has been one of the top-5 goalies in the league this season (10 shutouts!). He will be looking to carry the main load and prove to Marty Brodeur that he was wrong when he criticized him earlier this year. Michael Rozsival will have to be exceptional on the back-end while also quarterbacking the powerplay for New York. Jaromir Jagr has been stepping up his offense at the right time--finally, and Scott Gomez, who will be looking to prove something to his former team, gained some consistency as the year went along. One thing that can't be overlooked is the "Chris-Drury-Factor." Drury (a college star at Boston University where he won the Hobey Baker Award and a National Championship) is the ultimate winner. He has won at every level and is one of the most clutch players to ever take the ice. He can be counted on for a game-winning-goal when his team most needs it, which is why the Rangers can't be looked past throughout the playoffs, even when playing Brodeur. Overall, one of the few times the Devils seem to play exciting hockey as of late is when playing their rival Rangers, so this should a close, interesting series, but I'm going with fellow Terrier Chris Drury.
Prediction: NYR in 7.
Western Conference Quarterfinals
(1) Detroit Red Wings vs. (8) Nashville Predators
Regular Season Series: DET 5-3
DET Key Players: N. Lidstrom, P. Datsyuk, H. Zetterberg, D. Hasek (G), B. Rafalski
NSH Key Players: J. Arnott, J. Dumont, D. Ellis (G) (or C. Mason?), D. Hamhuis, M. Zidlicky, A. Radulov
I imagine this will be a short write-up. Luckily, I am not a huge fan of either of these teams and shouldn't do as much rambling as in the previous series' write-ups. Plain and simple, the Red Wings are a much better team than the Predators. They are both incredibly well coached (Mike Babcock for Detroit, Barry Trotz for Nashville), so I don't really think Trotz will be able to push the Preds over Detroit. The Red Wings have the best defenseman in the league in Lidstrom, and two of the best offensive weapons in Datsyuk and Zetterberg, who play on separate lines and have plenty of support. Rafalski and Lidstrom can do it all on defense and have plenty of depth below them with players like Kronwall and Chelios (who provides great veteran leadership). Hasek has looked good recently between the pipes, but should he get injured or falter, Chris Osgood was amazing this season and will easily take over. Nashville has only one good scoring line (Dumont-Arnott-Radulov) and lacks depth on D (Hamhuis and Zidlicky are there biggest names?). Dan Ellis has been a surprise in goal and should hold up fine, and either way he has Chris Mason behind him, should he need the help. If the Predators hope to have a chance in this series, one of the goaltenders will have to steal a few games for them. Trotz has done an incredible job getting a depleted team in a tough situation into the playoffs, but don't expect his first ever series win in this one. I don't forsee a long run for this Red Wings team that, despite their league-leading record, has showed incredible inconsistency, but this round should be theirs to lose.
Prediction: Wings in 5.
(2) San Jose Sharks vs. (7) Calgary Flames
CGY 3-1
SJ Key Players: E. Nabokov (G), J. Thornton, B. Campbell, P. Marleau, J. Cheechoo, M.E. Vlasic, C. Ehrhoff, M. Grier
CGY Key Players: J. Iginla, M. Kiprusoff (G), D. Phaneuf, R. Regehr, D. Langkow, K. Huselius
The Sharks are the team to beat in this year's playoffs, especially considering their big run down the stretch. Big stretch runs don't always translate into playoff success, but this team just looks too complete not to keep going. Barring drastic changes, I see them in the final. That's too bad for the Flames because they are a tough team that goes on spurts of great offense and spurts of great defense. The only way the Flames win this is if Kiprusoff steals the show in goal. Nabokov is too strong for even the likes of Jarome Iginla to ruin. Thornton, Campbell, and Nabokov will all be in the running for the Conn Smythe by the time these playoffs are over (boy will I look dumb if they lose this series). The Sharks ability to match up physically with the Flames and their extra firepower should win this series for them. I have to add in some props to great penalty-killing and defensive play of the Sharks' winger, Mike Grier, a former Boston University Terrier. So, the Sharks should take it, though it may be tougher than some are predicting , and this should be one of the most exciting series of the first round.
Prediction: Sharks in 6.
(3) Minnesota Wild vs. (6) Colorado Avalanche
Regular Season Series: MIN 5-3
MIN Key Players: N. Backstrom (G), M. Gaborik, B. Rolston, K. Johnsson, P. Demitra, P. Bouchard, B. Burns
COL Key Players: J. Theodore (G), J. Sakic, P. Forsberg, P. Stastny, M. Hejduk, A. Foote, S. Hannan, J. Liles
Another biased one for me....I've been a big Avs fan ever since Patrick Roy was traded there in their first year in Denver. Despite the bias, I feel that this team has really come together, especially once key players like Joe Sakic, Ryan Smyth, and Paul Stastny returned from injury. Peter Forsberg will either be huge for them or be invisible if his foot acts up, we'll see. Jose Theodore has been playing well in net finally this season, and is actually a decent match against Niklas Backstrom now. Adam Foote's return added the much-needed stay-at-home presence on the Colorado blueline. The Avs have much more offensive depth than Minnesota. Gaborik is there biggest weapon, and Bouchard, Rolston, and Demitra really don't provide sufficient scoring depth. The key will be to see if the Wild's strong defensive play all around will be enough to stymie the Colorado firepower. Brent Burns leads the way for the D, along with Kim Johnsson, and they will definitely need to eat up a ton of minutes to have a chance. I'm thinking Theodore surprises us a little and is the MVP of the series.
Prediction: Avs in 7.
(4) Anaheim Ducks vs. (5) Dallas Stars
Regular Season Series: DAL 5-3
ANA Key Players: C. Pronger, S. Niedermayer, R. Getzlaf, T. Selanne, J.S. Giguere (G), C. Perry, M. Schneider, F. Beauchemin, T. Bertuzzi, D. Weight
DAL Key Players: M. Turco (G), S. Zubov (pending injury status), B. Richards, M. Ribeiro, M. Modano, B. Morrow, P. Boucher, S. Robidas
I really do feel bad for Marty Turco. The man deserves to win a playoff series. He had 3 shutouts in round one last year against the Canucks and STILL DIDN'T WIN! The team couldn't win a game when he let in even ONE goal. Poor guy. If he can manage to play that well again, then yes, the Stars will win the series. Their offense has been better this season with Ribeiro playing better and the deadline acquisition of former Conn Smythe winner Brad Richards is huge. If Sergei Zubov can't return from injury, Boucher and Robidas will have to be incredible on the back-end. Anaheim's offense has lost some of its luster form the Cup run, but Getzlaf and Selanne (and Perry pending injury status) have the ability to increase their productivity. Anaheim's defense is second to none with the insane line-up of Niedermayer, Pronger, Schneider, and Beauchemin among others. Giguere is a playoff goalie and they will be all set in net. I think Anaheim's defense and goaltending will make up for a possible lack of offense and they will take this series.
Prediction: Ducks in 6.
Jordan Staal and the Pens will have a tough match-up against Lundqvist's Rangers
