NHL Jeff's Stanley Cup Final Prediction

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NHL Jeff's take on the Final Match-Up:
Stanley Cup Finals

(2) Anaheim Ducks vs. (4) Ottawa Senators

Regular Season Series: None

ANA Key Players: J.S. Giguere (G), C. Pronger, S. Niedermayer, T. Selanne, "The Kid Line," F. Beauchemin, A. McDonald, S. Pahlsson

OTT Key Players: D. Alfredsson, D. Heatley, J. Spezza, R. Emery (G), A. Volchenkov, W. Redden

So, the time is finally here, the Stanley Cup Finals. Obviously, both of these teams have played so well throughout the playoffs, this is a really tough one to predict. One would think that if the Alfredsson-Spezza-Heatley line can maintain their scoring touch that the Senators have the edge, especially when you add the superb defense they've gotten and the solid goaltending of Ray Emery, although, due to the strength of the D, I don't think Emery has seen the kind of quality shots and number of shots that he will see against the Ducks. This will be his ultimate test. Daniel Alfredsson has finally risen to the levels of play and leadership that were expected of him, and he is a top candidate for the Conn Smythe (playoff MVP) Trophy. It is extremely important to take note that the one game in the last series in which Buffalo beat Ottawa, for the first time in the playoffs, the Sens' top line was finally shut down; their not being allowed onto the scoresheet is obviously such a huge part of beating this team. As an aside, Ottawa coach Bryan Murray was the previous GM of the Ducks and was instrumental in obtaining many pieces of the team's puzzle. He knows the team very well, which could be an interesting advantage, but it was not one that seemed to help the Ducks' former head coach and current head in Detroit, Mike Babcock.

So, onto the Ducks. J.S. Giguere has been absolutely superb for Anaheim thus far and is also a leading Conn Smythe Candidate. In at least (and I stress at least) 2 or 3 of the wins against the Wings in the conference final, Giguere was the reason the Ducks had a chance of winning, and they often were lucky to put the puck in at the other end to make Giguere's work worthwhile. Ryan Getzlaf and Cory Perry really stepped up their offensive game, and Dustin Penner, the other member of the kid line was also solid. Teemu Selanne found a way later in the series to finally hit the net and it definitely paid off (see his beautiful move on Dominik Hasek in OT to win game 5--the turning point in the series). The most significant thing made apparent about Anaheim in the previous round is that everyone of their lines can contribute both on offense and defense. The checking line of Rob Niedermayer, Travis Moen, and Sami Pahlsson, as always, remained a huge defensive asset, but also majorly contributed on offense. Oh, and let's not forget that along with solid top-4 D-men Francois Beauchemin and Sean O'Donnell, the Ducks have 2 of the 3 best defensemen in the league in Chris Pronger and Scott Niedermayer, who, playing injured (foot), by the end of the last series seemed to have finally returned to form. The Ducks also showed a lot of character in winning game 4 without Pronger, their leading scorer who was suspended for one game. The Red Wings did expose the Ducks as a team that can be somewhat streaky during games and that they are beatable when those times are capitalized upon.

If their big guns play like the stars they are and Ray Emery excels on this test of epic proportions, Ottawa could hold the cards in this series, but If the Sens' top line falters, and their other lines can't return to their regular season production totals, look for weaknesses in Ottawa's team to finally be made apparent. If the Ducks play like they did during the first 2 periods of game 6 of their previous series they will be incredibly tough to beat, even for Ottawa, but if they fall flat at any time during the series, look for Ottawa to expose their weaknesses.

Really, this could go either way. It is such a close series, and I will have no less confidence in my analysis skills if the Sens win, but I am thinking that Coach Randy Carlyle will keep the Ducks disciplined and on target while Pronger and Niedermayer, with a lot of help from defensive forward Sami Pahlsson and the rest of the Anaheim squad, finally find a way to slow down Ottawa's top line.

Prediction: Ducks in 7.

Conference Final Results and how NHL Jeff did with Predictions

A quick look back at the Conference Final winners:

Eastern Conference Results
Buffalo vs. Ottawa
Prediction: Sabres in 6
Outcome: Senators in 5
The Senators top line was just too much for the Sabres to contain. The one game that they were able to control the Alfredsson-Spezza-Heatley line, they won. The Sabres were not the same team that they were when they won the Presidents' trophy during the regular season, and it showed. The off-season losses of grit guys like Jay McKee and Mike Grier started to finally show. If they end up losing both Briere and Drury to free agency, look for it to affect the Sabres less than expected. The depth of this team still hasn't even been realized, but also look for Regier to acquire some more grit this summer.

Western Conference Results
Detroit vs. Anaheim
Prediction: Ducks in 6
Outcome: Ducks in 6
The Ducks can thank J.S. Giguere for keeping them in the series when their play wasn't exactly up to par.


NHL Jeff's Record: 9-5 (4 wins with exact game counts)

NHL Jeff's Conference Final Predictions

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NHL Jeff's take on the 3rd Round Match-Ups:
Eastern Conference Finals

(1) Buffalo Sabres vs. (4) Ottawa Senators

Regular Season Series: Ott 5-3

BUF Key Players: R. Miller (G), D. Briere, C. Drury, T. Vanek, B. Campbell, but really, with this team, each player plays an important role.

OTT Key Players: R. Emery (G), D. Alfredsson, D. Heatley, J. Spezza, W. Redden, A. Volchenkov

The Rangers gave the Sabres a run for their money, but by the end of the series, the high-flying Sabres finally returned to their true form as the NHL's best offensive team. Their defense faltered at times, but when that happened, Ryan Miller was there to make the huge saves. Chris Drury came up big, especially with his game-tying goal with 7.7 seconds left in game 5. Had the Sabres lost that game, it would have been pretty tough to come back and win at MSG with the Rangers up. The Senators showed in their series that even one of the best defensive teams in the league can't stop their offense. Their defense was great too, holding back a New Jersey team that seemed to find an offensive touch in the first round. There's some bad blood between these teams after the brawl they had earlier in the season, and while I am sure this will be a rougher series than one would have originally expected between these two teams,, I don't think it will be as big of a factor as expected. Both teams' players know how important this series is and will likely leave personal vendettas behind. Look for the Buffalo offense to find ways to penetrate the Ottawa D and for this to be a pretty offensive series. That is not to say there will be a ton of goals as both teams are strong in net, the Sabres with Miller and the Sens with Ray Emery. Because I believe the defenses will be broken down, I think this series will come down to goaltending, and while Emery has been great thus far, I say Miller wins the battle.

Prediction: Sabres in 6.


Western Conference Finals

(1) Detroit Red Wings vs. (2) Anaheim Ducks

Regular Season Series: Tie 2-2

DET Key Players: P. Datsyuk, D. Hasek (G), N. Lidstrom, H. Zetterbeg, J. Franzen, C. Chelios

ANA Key Players: C. Pronger, S. Niedermayer, T. Selanne, J.S. Giguere (G), R. Getzlaf, F. Beauchemin, A. McDonald

This should be an interesting series. The Ducks have had a lot of rest, which can be seen as either a negative or positive. I don't think Coach Randy Carlyle will allow the rest between series to hurt them as much as it did last year. They may have to take a period to get the rust off, but expect them to be ready. The Wings, on the other hand, are probably pretty worn out. They do have an older team, but their biggest issue is their depleted blueline. They showed that they could handle themselves without Kronwall, Lebda, and Schneider, but how long can that last? Lebda should be back during this series, which will definitely be a boost. Nicklas Lidstrom continues to be extraordinary, and 45-year-old Chris Chelios is actually thriving with the increased ice-time. This series will feature the games 3 best defensemen, which is definitely something to look forward to. Expect a low-scoring series. The team with the ability to penetrate the other's D has the best chance of taking this series. The goaltenders will also be strong. J.S. Giguere has played impressively so far, and I think the Ducks will work to get under Dominik Hasek's skin and also capitalize on his mistakes. While Hasek has been great thus far in teh playoffs, I just can't see him making it past this series. The Ducks top line has started to produce again, while also getting consistent production from other lines. Anaheim's Sammy Pahlsson-led checking line is the best in the league and can go up against any offense. Datsyuk, Zetterberg, and Holmstrom will have to work really hard to out-play the likes of Pronger, Niedermayer, and Beauchemin, and I just don't see that happening.

Prediction: Ducks in 6.

Round 2 Results and how NHL Jeff did with Predictions

A quick look back at round 2's winners:

Eastern Conference Results
Buffalo vs. NY Rangers
Prediction: Sabres in 6.
Outcome: Sabres in 6.

New Jersey vs. Ottawa
Prediction: Sens in 7.
Outcome: Sens in 5.
The Sens offense overpowered the Devils defesnse even faster than I expected, and while it wasn't his fault, Marty Brodeur was not true to his usual playoff form.


Western Conference Results
Detroit vs. San Jose
Prediction: Sharks in 6
Outcome: Wings in 6
While Joe Thornton's line continued to produce somewhat, the Sharks other lines faltered. Their powerplay was horrendous, which is what lost the series for them. In my opinion, Nabokov's giveaway goal in game 5 was the turning point in the series. Nabokov played well, and I think he is a proven playoff goaltender, but that was just a costly mistake. With Nick Lidstrom and Dominik Hasek, Detroit was able to keep pucks out of its net despite having a depleted blueline corps.

Anaheim vs. Vancouver
Prediction: Anaheim in 6
Outcome: Anaheim in 5


NHL Jeff's Record: 8-4 (3 wins with exact game counts)

NHL Awards Finalists and NHL Jeff's Picks

CALDER MEMORIAL TROPHY (outstanding rookie):
Evgeni Malkin, Pittsburgh Penguins; Jordan Staal, Pittsburgh Penguins; Paul Stastny, Colorado Avalanche.
NHL Jeff's Take: Malkin was amazing all season long. Yes, he started out on fire and slowed down a bit as the season went on, but he was definitely the best first-year player in the NHL. Stastny had a great stretch run while setting a rookie record with at least a point in 20 straight games, but his great effort did not push him past Malkin. Staal was amazing for an 18-year-old kid that was expected to remain in juniors this season. He started the season with the Pens because Malkin was injured, and he played so well that he earned a spot on the team, they couldn't send him back. That was an amazing feat for an 18-year-old kid, but I think he made this spot more for the publicity he's gotten while, based on play, LA's Anze Kopitar, and SJ's Matt Carle and Marc-Edouard Vlasic are interchangeable in that spot.

Pick: Evgeni Malkin


FRANK J. SELKE TROPHY (outstanding defensive forward):
Rod Brind'Amour, Carolina Hurricanes; Samuel Pahlsson, Anaheim Ducks; Jay Pandolfo, New Jersey Devils.
NHL Jeff's Take: As a big Chris Drury fan, I think he got snubbed here. He deserved a nomination for this award...but obviously we can't change the nominees. So, let's start by pointing out that the teams of these 3 players were all in the top 7 in penalty kill percentage for the year. Rod Brind'Amour had another great year for the 'Canes, but was unable to carry them to the playoffs. His defensive work in all types of situations was instrumental to the 'Canes keeping pucks out of their net, but did they keep enough out...? Pahlsson and Pandolfo were both huge parts of their teams' great success. Pahlsson is one of the most underrated players in the league and deserves a lot more credit for all of his effort. He may be playing with 2 of the 3 best defensemen in the league, but he is buy far the defensive anchor for a fire-powered offense. Pandolfo plays with many defensive specialists both with him at forward and on the blueline, and benefits from the overall defensive system that the Devils play with.

Pick: Samuel Pahlsson


HART MEMORIAL TROPHY (most valuable player to his team):
Martin Brodeur, New Jersey Devils; Sidney Crosby, Pittsburgh Penguins; Roberto Luongo, Vancouver Canucks.
NHL Jeff's Take: All great candidates. It's hard to see Tampa's Vincent Lecavalier left off the list, but they take the top three, and these guys definitely deserve it. While Brodeur may have been the best goaltender this season, it can definitely be said that Luongo was the more valuable player to his team. With this statement, I agree. So many of the games that the Canucks won were won by Luongo. While Brodeur also won many of the Devils' games, I would have to say that he did so to a lesser extent. This may be some of my bias coming out, but of these three candidates, Crosby seemed to be most valuable. Yes, an argument can be made that the Pens definitely increased their top-notch talent this year, but Crosby set the pace for every win. His constant effort and hard work rubbed off on his team and he contributed to the better play of every Penguin that touched the ice. The kid played with a broken foot for the last two weeks of the regular season and the first round of the playoffs! Oh yeah, and he was the league-leading scorer....

Pick: Sidney Crosby


JACK ADAMS AWARD (outstanding coach):
Lindy Ruff, Buffalo Sabres; Michel Therrien, Pittsburgh Penguins; Alain Vigneault, Vancouver Canucks.
NHL Jeff's Take: I would like to start out by saying that, while the Canucks played unexpectedly well this season (these teams' coaches are normally the ones up for this award), I truly don't think Alain Vigneault had the biggest part in making this happen. That man was Roberto Luongo. Without this goaltender, Vacouver likely would not have made the playoffs. Now, to the other candidates: Lindy Ruff is the reigning winer of this award, and once again took a team that wasn't expected to be outstanding and made them that way. The Sabres lost veterans Jay McKee, Mike Grier, and JP Dumont in the off-season, who were all integral parts of Buffalo's run to game 7 of the Eastern Conference finals. The fact that Ruff was able to keep this team not only as good, but even better than last year's (they won the President's Trophy as the regular season Champs) was astonishing. While much of this can be attributed to the young depth GM Darcy Regier has acquired, but nay seasoned coach can tell you that coaching a bunch of guys without much experience is not the easiest task, which leads us to our next candidate. Michel Therrien's Pittsburgh Penguins were full of yound, raw talent this season. He was able to maintain the attention of these young guys and propel them into the playoffs. Yes, Therrien had the league-leading scorer, but Buffalo has great scorers too. To me, this is a toss-up between Ruff and Therrien, but I am guessing we'll see a new winner this year.

Pick: Michel Therrien


JAMES NORRIS MEMORIAL TROPHY (outstanding defenseman):
Nicklas Lidstrom, Detroit Red Wings; Scott Niedermayer, Anaheim Ducks; Chris Pronger, Anaheim Ducks.
NHL Jeff's Take: I definitely agree that these are the 3 best defensemen in the league. Some feel that Tapa's Dan Boyle got snubbed, and he did have a great season. I wouldn't be opposed to seeing him on the list over Pronger only because Pronger missed 16 games due to injury, although he also still had a career-year in points...It seems that almost every time the Ducks need a goal, it starts with a Pronger slapshot from the point that either goes in, is redirected in, or is put in on the rebound. Had Pronger played the whole season, an argument for his winning the Norris would be easier to make. Ducks' captain Scott Niedermayer is the other anchor of the Anaheim blueline, and he also is able to chip in rather extensively on offense. On the powerplay he plays the roll of the rover and often ends up right in front of the net. He led all defensemen with 69 points. Niedermayer was, surprisingly, only a plus-6. Nicklas Lidstrom was a plus-40 and was, in my opinion, the MVP of the Red Wings. His offensive numbers may have been down from last year (80 points last year to 62 points this year), but his defensive game was up and other Wings were contributing more on offensive side. He took on the roll of captain very well and, while personally I don't like him very much (I'm an Avs fan, he's a Wing...), he continued to be one of the top-three defensemen in the league, and because of the lesser depth of defensemen on his team, I am going to say the best.

Pick: Nicklas Lidstrom


LADY BYNG MEMORIAL TROPHY (sportsmanship and gentlemanly conduct):
Pavel Datsyuk, Detroit Red Wings; Joe Sakic, Colorado Avalanche; Martin St. Louis, Tampa Bay Lightning.
NHL Jeff's Take: This award normally goes to the player with the most points combined with the least amount of penalty minutes. This year that candidate is Tampa Bay's Martin St. Louis, but then you look at the list and see a legend like Joe Sakic. He had his best season since 2001 while being the most respected player in the NHL. In my opinion (that of an Avs fan...) he deserves any and all accolades he is up for, and that is why I think this will go to Colorado Avalanche captain and future hall-of-famer Joe Sakic.

Pick: Joe Sakic


LESTER B. PEARSON AWARD (most outstanding player as voted by fellow members of the NHLPA): Sidney Crosby, Pittsburgh Penguins; Vincent Lecavalier, Tampa Bay Lightning; Roberto Luongo, Vancouver Canucks.
NHL Jeff's Take: Because this award is voted for by the players, I'd like to make it clear that despite his young age, Sidney Crosby has become a very respected player among his peers. Vinny lecavalier had a spectacular season in Tampa and won the "Rocket" Richard Trophy for leading the league in goals. He was definitely the Lightning's best player and the second best forward in the league. Luongo played amazingly well this season. Luongo was spectacular in Vancouver, especially considering who he had around him (which may give him an edge for the Hart, although I think Crosby will get that too), and players may take that into consideration, but they shouldn't. This award is supposed to go to the "most outstanding player," and that was Pittsburgh's Sidney Crosby.

Pick: Sidney Crosby


VEZINA TROPHY (outstanding goaltender):
Martin Brodeur, New Jersey Devils; Miikka Kiprusoff, Calgary Flames; Henrik Lundqvist, New York Rangers; Roberto Luongo, Vancouver Canucks.
NHL Jeff's Take: I'd like to start out by setting it straight that, despite the fact that 4 candidates were named due to a tie between Lundqvist and Kiprusoff, this is a two-man race. Either Martin Brodeur or Roberto Luongo will win the Vezina Trophy, I guarantee that. Kiprusoff had a decent year, but not his Vezina-winning season of last, and Lundqvist came on in the second half to blast the Rangers into the playoffs, but neither of these goaltenders played nearly at the level at which Brodeur and Luongo played consistently, all season long. Brodeur broke Bernie Parent's 47 regular season win total and Luongo tied it (although this wouldn't have happened without the benefit of shootout wins). In my opinion, Brodeur deserves the award more. They both had extremely solid numbers, but Brodeur's were slightly better. Brodeur was first in wins, Luongo was second; Brodeur was third in save percentage, Luongo was fourth (by the slimmest of margins); Brodeur was third in goals against average, Luongo was sixth; Brodeur was first in shutouts with 12, Luongo was sixth with 5. Martin Brodeur continues to be the best goalie in the league in the middle of his thirties. This was arguably the best season of his career. If this award was for the goaltender most valuable to his team, it would be Luongo's award, but it is for the goaltender that was most outstanding. Alright, so I've made it clear that Martin Brodeur deserves to win this award, but I didn't say that I think he will. Luongo has been heralded for years as a great goaltender playing for bad teams, and now that he has finally gotten on a competitive team, the media is loving every second of his success. While the GMs are the ones who vote for this award, I think they will take this into account and Roberto Luongo will win. For this prediction, I hope I am wrong and they choose the actual "most outstanding goaltender" of the season, Martin Brodeur.

Pick: Roberto Luongo