Wednesday, October 03, 2007

NHL Jeff's Season Predictions

Analysis may or may not be coming soon...








1. Pittsburgh Penguins*
2. Ottawa Senators*
3. Tampa Bay Lightning*
4. New York Rangers
5. Buffalo Sabres
6. Philadelphia Flyers
7. New Jersey Devils
8. Carolina Hurricanes
9. Toronto Maple Leafs
10. Atlanta Thrashers
11. Montreal Canadiens
12. Boston Bruins
13. Washington Capitals
14. Florida Panthers
15. New York Islanders









1. Detroit Red Wings*
2. Colorado Avalanche*
3. Anaheim Ducks*
4. San Jose Sharks
5. Calgary Flames
6. Vancouver Canucks
7. Dallas Stars
8. St. Louis Blues
9. Minnesota Wild
10. Nashville Predators
11. Chicago Blackhawks
12. Los Angeles Kings
13. Edmonton Oilers
14. Columbus Blue Jackets
15. Phoenix Coyotes

Wednesday, June 06, 2007

Stanley Cup Final Result and how NHL Jeff did with his prediction

Stanley Cup Final Results
Anaheim vs. Ottawa
Prediction: Ducks in 7
Outcome: Ducks in 5
I turned out to be right in my thinking that the Ducks would finally learn how to shut down the Sens' top line, they just did it faster than I expected. Anaheim minimized Ottawa's shots this series, but J.S. Giguere was huge in net for the Ducks when he had to be,m especially on the few 5-on-3 penalty kills. Sami Pahlsson came through both defensively and on the scoresheet, scoring the winner in my favorite game of the series, game 2 (Ducks 1, Sens 0).

NHL Jeff's 2007 Playoff Record
: 10-5 (4 wins with exact game counts)

Tuesday, May 22, 2007

NHL Jeff's Stanley Cup Final Prediction


Click here for the full Round 4 Schedule.

NHL Jeff's take on the Final Match-Up:

Stanley Cup Finals

(2) Anaheim Ducks vs. (4) Ottawa Senators

Regular Season Series: None

ANA Key Players: J.S. Giguere (G), C. Pronger, S. Niedermayer, T. Selanne, "The Kid Line," F. Beauchemin, A. McDonald, S. Pahlsson

OTT Key Players: D. Alfredsson, D. Heatley, J. Spezza, R. Emery (G), A. Volchenkov, W. Redden

So, the time is finally here, the Stanley Cup Finals. Obviously, both of these teams have played so well throughout the playoffs, this is a really tough one to predict. One would think that if the Alfredsson-Spezza-Heatley line can maintain their scoring touch that the Senators have the edge, especially when you add the superb defense they've gotten and the solid goaltending of Ray Emery, although, due to the strength of the D, I don't think Emery has seen the kind of quality shots and number of shots that he will see against the Ducks. This will be his ultimate test. Daniel Alfredsson has finally risen to the levels of play and leadership that were expected of him, and he is a top candidate for the Conn Smythe (playoff MVP) Trophy. It is extremely important to take note that the one game in the last series in which Buffalo beat Ottawa, for the first time in the playoffs, the Sens' top line was finally shut down; their not being allowed onto the scoresheet is obviously such a huge part of beating this team. As an aside, Ottawa coach Bryan Murray was the previous GM of the Ducks and was instrumental in obtaining many pieces of the team's puzzle. He knows the team very well, which could be an interesting advantage, but it was not one that seemed to help the Ducks' former head coach and current head in Detroit, Mike Babcock.

So, onto the Ducks. J.S. Giguere has been absolutely superb for Anaheim thus far and is also a leading Conn Smythe Candidate. In at least (and I stress at least) 2 or 3 of the wins against the Wings in the conference final, Giguere was the reason the Ducks had a chance of winning, and they often were lucky to put the puck in at the other end to make Giguere's work worthwhile. Ryan Getzlaf and Cory Perry really stepped up their offensive game, and Dustin Penner, the other member of the kid line was also solid. Teemu Selanne found a way later in the series to finally hit the net and it definitely paid off (see his beautiful move on Dominik Hasek in OT to win game 5--the turning point in the series). The most significant thing made apparent about Anaheim in the previous round is that everyone of their lines can contribute both on offense and defense. The checking line of Rob Niedermayer, Travis Moen, and Sami Pahlsson, as always, remained a huge defensive asset, but also majorly contributed on offense. Oh, and let's not forget that along with solid top-4 D-men Francois Beauchemin and Sean O'Donnell, the Ducks have 2 of the 3 best defensemen in the league in Chris Pronger and Scott Niedermayer, who, playing injured (foot), by the end of the last series seemed to have finally returned to form. The Ducks also showed a lot of character in winning game 4 without Pronger, their leading scorer who was suspended for one game. The Red Wings did expose the Ducks as a team that can be somewhat streaky during games and that they are beatable when those times are capitalized upon.

If their big guns play like the stars they are and Ray Emery excels on this test of epic proportions, Ottawa could hold the cards in this series, but If the Sens' top line falters, and their other lines can't return to their regular season production totals, look for weaknesses in Ottawa's team to finally be made apparent. If the Ducks play like they did during the first 2 periods of game 6 of their previous series they will be incredibly tough to beat, even for Ottawa, but if they fall flat at any time during the series, look for Ottawa to expose their weaknesses.

Really, this could go either way. It is such a close series, and I will have no less confidence in my analysis skills if the Sens win, but I am thinking that Coach Randy Carlyle will keep the Ducks disciplined and on target while Pronger and Niedermayer, with a lot of help from defensive forward Sami Pahlsson and the rest of the Anaheim squad, finally find a way to slow down Ottawa's top line.

Prediction: Ducks in 7.

Conference Final Results and how NHL Jeff did with Predictions

A quick look back at the Conference Final winners:

Eastern Conference Results
Buffalo vs. Ottawa
Prediction: Sabres in 6
Outcome: Senators in 5
The Senators top line was just too much for the Sabres to contain. The one game that they were able to control the Alfredsson-Spezza-Heatley line, they won. The Sabres were not the same team that they were when they won the Presidents' trophy during the regular season, and it showed. The off-season losses of grit guys like Jay McKee and Mike Grier started to finally show. If they end up losing both Briere and Drury to free agency, look for it to affect the Sabres less than expected. The depth of this team still hasn't even been realized, but also look for Regier to acquire some more grit this summer.

Western Conference Results
Detroit vs. Anaheim
Prediction: Ducks in 6
Outcome: Ducks in 6
The Ducks can thank J.S. Giguere for keeping them in the series when their play wasn't exactly up to par.


NHL Jeff's Record
: 9-5 (4 wins with exact game counts)

Monday, May 07, 2007

NHL Jeff's Conference Final Predictions

Click here for the full Round 3 Schedule.

NHL Jeff's take on the 3rd Round Match-Ups:

Eastern Conference Finals

(1) Buffalo Sabres vs. (4) Ottawa Senators

Regular Season Series: Ott 5-3

BUF Key Players: R. Miller (G), D. Briere, C. Drury, T. Vanek, B. Campbell, but really, with this team, each player plays an important role.

OTT Key Players: R. Emery (G), D. Alfredsson, D. Heatley, J. Spezza, W. Redden, A. Volchenkov

The Rangers gave the Sabres a run for their money, but by the end of the series, the high-flying Sabres finally returned to their true form as the NHL's best offensive team. Their defense faltered at times, but when that happened, Ryan Miller was there to make the huge saves. Chris Drury came up big, especially with his game-tying goal with 7.7 seconds left in game 5. Had the Sabres lost that game, it would have been pretty tough to come back and win at MSG with the Rangers up. The Senators showed in their series that even one of the best defensive teams in the league can't stop their offense. Their defense was great too, holding back a New Jersey team that seemed to find an offensive touch in the first round. There's some bad blood between these teams after the brawl they had earlier in the season, and while I am sure this will be a rougher series than one would have originally expected between these two teams,, I don't think it will be as big of a factor as expected. Both teams' players know how important this series is and will likely leave personal vendettas behind. Look for the Buffalo offense to find ways to penetrate the Ottawa D and for this to be a pretty offensive series. That is not to say there will be a ton of goals as both teams are strong in net, the Sabres with Miller and the Sens with Ray Emery. Because I believe the defenses will be broken down, I think this series will come down to goaltending, and while Emery has been great thus far, I say Miller wins the battle.

Prediction: Sabres in 6.


Western Conference Finals


(1) Detroit Red Wings vs. (2) Anaheim Ducks

Regular Season Series: Tie 2-2

DET Key Players: P. Datsyuk, D. Hasek (G), N. Lidstrom, H. Zetterbeg, J. Franzen, C. Chelios

ANA Key Players: C. Pronger, S. Niedermayer, T. Selanne, J.S. Giguere (G), R. Getzlaf, F. Beauchemin, A. McDonald

This should be an interesting series. The Ducks have had a lot of rest, which can be seen as either a negative or positive. I don't think Coach Randy Carlyle will allow the rest between series to hurt them as much as it did last year. They may have to take a period to get the rust off, but expect them to be ready. The Wings, on the other hand, are probably pretty worn out. They do have an older team, but their biggest issue is their depleted blueline. They showed that they could handle themselves without Kronwall, Lebda, and Schneider, but how long can that last? Lebda should be back during this series, which will definitely be a boost. Nicklas Lidstrom continues to be extraordinary, and 45-year-old Chris Chelios is actually thriving with the increased ice-time. This series will feature the games 3 best defensemen, which is definitely something to look forward to. Expect a low-scoring series. The team with the ability to penetrate the other's D has the best chance of taking this series. The goaltenders will also be strong. J.S. Giguere has played impressively so far, and I think the Ducks will work to get under Dominik Hasek's skin and also capitalize on his mistakes. While Hasek has been great thus far in teh playoffs, I just can't see him making it past this series. The Ducks top line has started to produce again, while also getting consistent production from other lines. Anaheim's Sammy Pahlsson-led checking line is the best in the league and can go up against any offense. Datsyuk, Zetterberg, and Holmstrom will have to work really hard to out-play the likes of Pronger, Niedermayer, and Beauchemin, and I just don't see that happening.

Prediction: Ducks in 6.

Round 2 Results and how NHL Jeff did with Predictions

A quick look back at round 2's winners:

Eastern Conference Results
Buffalo vs. NY Rangers
Prediction: Sabres in 6.
Outcome: Sabres in 6.

New Jersey vs. Ottawa
Prediction: Sens in 7.
Outcome: Sens in 5.
The Sens offense overpowered the Devils defesnse even faster than I expected, and while it wasn't his fault, Marty Brodeur was not true to his usual playoff form.


Western Conference Results
Detroit vs. San Jose
Prediction: Sharks in 6
Outcome: Wings in 6
While Joe Thornton's line continued to produce somewhat, the Sharks other lines faltered. Their powerplay was horrendous, which is what lost the series for them. In my opinion, Nabokov's giveaway goal in game 5 was the turning point in the series. Nabokov played well, and I think he is a proven playoff goaltender, but that was just a costly mistake. With Nick Lidstrom and Dominik Hasek, Detroit was able to keep pucks out of its net despite having a depleted blueline corps.

Anaheim vs. Vancouver
Prediction: Anaheim in 6
Outcome: Anaheim in 5


NHL Jeff's Record
: 8-4 (3 wins with exact game counts)

Tuesday, May 01, 2007

NHL Awards Finalists and NHL Jeff's Picks

CALDER MEMORIAL TROPHY (outstanding rookie):
Evgeni Malkin, Pittsburgh Penguins; Jordan Staal, Pittsburgh Penguins; Paul Stastny, Colorado Avalanche.
NHL Jeff's Take: Malkin was amazing all season long. Yes, he started out on fire and slowed down a bit as the season went on, but he was definitely the best first-year player in the NHL. Stastny had a great stretch run while setting a rookie record with at least a point in 20 straight games, but his great effort did not push him past Malkin. Staal was amazing for an 18-year-old kid that was expected to remain in juniors this season. He started the season with the Pens because Malkin was injured, and he played so well that he earned a spot on the team, they couldn't send him back. That was an amazing feat for an 18-year-old kid, but I think he made this spot more for the publicity he's gotten while, based on play, LA's Anze Kopitar, and SJ's Matt Carle and Marc-Edouard Vlasic are interchangeable in that spot.

Pick: Evgeni Malkin


FRANK J. SELKE TROPHY
(outstanding defensive forward):
Rod Brind'Amour, Carolina Hurricanes; Samuel Pahlsson, Anaheim Ducks; Jay Pandolfo, New Jersey Devils.
NHL Jeff's Take: As a big Chris Drury fan, I think he got snubbed here. He deserved a nomination for this award...but obviously we can't change the nominees. So, let's start by pointing out that the teams of these 3 players were all in the top 7 in penalty kill percentage for the year. Rod Brind'Amour had another great year for the 'Canes, but was unable to carry them to the playoffs. His defensive work in all types of situations was instrumental to the 'Canes keeping pucks out of their net, but did they keep enough out...? Pahlsson and Pandolfo were both huge parts of their teams' great success. Pahlsson is one of the most underrated players in the league and deserves a lot more credit for all of his effort. He may be playing with 2 of the 3 best defensemen in the league, but he is buy far the defensive anchor for a fire-powered offense. Pandolfo plays with many defensive specialists both with him at forward and on the blueline, and benefits from the overall defensive system that the Devils play with.

Pick: Samuel Pahlsson


HART MEMORIAL TROPHY (most valuable player to his team):
Martin Brodeur, New Jersey Devils; Sidney Crosby, Pittsburgh Penguins; Roberto Luongo, Vancouver Canucks.
NHL Jeff's Take: All great candidates. It's hard to see Tampa's Vincent Lecavalier left off the list, but they take the top three, and these guys definitely deserve it. While Brodeur may have been the best goaltender this season, it can definitely be said that Luongo was the more valuable player to his team. With this statement, I agree. So many of the games that the Canucks won were won by Luongo. While Brodeur also won many of the Devils' games, I would have to say that he did so to a lesser extent. This may be some of my bias coming out, but of these three candidates, Crosby seemed to be most valuable. Yes, an argument can be made that the Pens definitely increased their top-notch talent this year, but Crosby set the pace for every win. His constant effort and hard work rubbed off on his team and he contributed to the better play of every Penguin that touched the ice. The kid played with a broken foot for the last two weeks of the regular season and the first round of the playoffs! Oh yeah, and he was the league-leading scorer....

Pick: Sidney Crosby


JACK ADAMS AWARD (outstanding coach):
Lindy Ruff, Buffalo Sabres; Michel Therrien, Pittsburgh Penguins; Alain Vigneault, Vancouver Canucks.
NHL Jeff's Take: I would like to start out by saying that, while the Canucks played unexpectedly well this season (these teams' coaches are normally the ones up for this award), I truly don't think Alain Vigneault had the biggest part in making this happen. That man was Roberto Luongo. Without this goaltender, Vacouver likely would not have made the playoffs. Now, to the other candidates: Lindy Ruff is the reigning winer of this award, and once again took a team that wasn't expected to be outstanding and made them that way. The Sabres lost veterans Jay McKee, Mike Grier, and JP Dumont in the off-season, who were all integral parts of Buffalo's run to game 7 of the Eastern Conference finals. The fact that Ruff was able to keep this team not only as good, but even better than last year's (they won the President's Trophy as the regular season Champs) was astonishing. While much of this can be attributed to the young depth GM Darcy Regier has acquired, but nay seasoned coach can tell you that coaching a bunch of guys without much experience is not the easiest task, which leads us to our next candidate. Michel Therrien's Pittsburgh Penguins were full of yound, raw talent this season. He was able to maintain the attention of these young guys and propel them into the playoffs. Yes, Therrien had the league-leading scorer, but Buffalo has great scorers too. To me, this is a toss-up between Ruff and Therrien, but I am guessing we'll see a new winner this year.

Pick: Michel Therrien


JAMES NORRIS MEMORIAL TROPHY (outstanding defenseman):
Nicklas Lidstrom, Detroit Red Wings; Scott Niedermayer, Anaheim Ducks; Chris Pronger, Anaheim Ducks.
NHL Jeff's Take: I definitely agree that these are the 3 best defensemen in the league. Some feel that Tapa's Dan Boyle got snubbed, and he did have a great season. I wouldn't be opposed to seeing him on the list over Pronger only because Pronger missed 16 games due to injury, although he also still had a career-year in points...It seems that almost every time the Ducks need a goal, it starts with a Pronger slapshot from the point that either goes in, is redirected in, or is put in on the rebound. Had Pronger played the whole season, an argument for his winning the Norris would be easier to make. Ducks' captain Scott Niedermayer is the other anchor of the Anaheim blueline, and he also is able to chip in rather extensively on offense. On the powerplay he plays the roll of the rover and often ends up right in front of the net. He led all defensemen with 69 points. Niedermayer was, surprisingly, only a plus-6. Nicklas Lidstrom was a plus-40 and was, in my opinion, the MVP of the Red Wings. His offensive numbers may have been down from last year (80 points last year to 62 points this year), but his defensive game was up and other Wings were contributing more on offensive side. He took on the roll of captain very well and, while personally I don't like him very much (I'm an Avs fan, he's a Wing...), he continued to be one of the top-three defensemen in the league, and because of the lesser depth of defensemen on his team, I am going to say the best.

Pick: Nicklas Lidstrom


LADY BYNG MEMORIAL TROPHY (sportsmanship and gentlemanly conduct):
Pavel Datsyuk, Detroit Red Wings; Joe Sakic, Colorado Avalanche; Martin St. Louis, Tampa Bay Lightning.
NHL Jeff's Take: This award normally goes to the player with the most points combined with the least amount of penalty minutes. This year that candidate is Tampa Bay's Martin St. Louis, but then you look at the list and see a legend like Joe Sakic. He had his best season since 2001 while being the most respected player in the NHL. In my opinion (that of an Avs fan...) he deserves any and all accolades he is up for, and that is why I think this will go to Colorado Avalanche captain and future hall-of-famer Joe Sakic.

Pick: Joe Sakic


LESTER B. PEARSON AWARD
(most outstanding player as voted by fellow members of the NHLPA): Sidney Crosby, Pittsburgh Penguins; Vincent Lecavalier, Tampa Bay Lightning; Roberto Luongo, Vancouver Canucks.
NHL Jeff's Take: Because this award is voted for by the players, I'd like to make it clear that despite his young age, Sidney Crosby has become a very respected player among his peers. Vinny lecavalier had a spectacular season in Tampa and won the "Rocket" Richard Trophy for leading the league in goals. He was definitely the Lightning's best player and the second best forward in the league. Luongo played amazingly well this season. Luongo was spectacular in Vancouver, especially considering who he had around him (which may give him an edge for the Hart, although I think Crosby will get that too), and players may take that into consideration, but they shouldn't. This award is supposed to go to the "most outstanding player," and that was Pittsburgh's Sidney Crosby.

Pick: Sidney Crosby


VEZINA TROPHY (outstanding goaltender):
Martin Brodeur, New Jersey Devils; Miikka Kiprusoff, Calgary Flames; Henrik Lundqvist, New York Rangers; Roberto Luongo, Vancouver Canucks.
NHL Jeff's Take: I'd like to start out by setting it straight that, despite the fact that 4 candidates were named due to a tie between Lundqvist and Kiprusoff, this is a two-man race. Either Martin Brodeur or Roberto Luongo will win the Vezina Trophy, I guarantee that. Kiprusoff had a decent year, but not his Vezina-winning season of last, and Lundqvist came on in the second half to blast the Rangers into the playoffs, but neither of these goaltenders played nearly at the level at which Brodeur and Luongo played consistently, all season long. Brodeur broke Bernie Parent's 47 regular season win total and Luongo tied it (although this wouldn't have happened without the benefit of shootout wins). In my opinion, Brodeur deserves the award more. They both had extremely solid numbers, but Brodeur's were slightly better. Brodeur was first in wins, Luongo was second; Brodeur was third in save percentage, Luongo was fourth (by the slimmest of margins); Brodeur was third in goals against average, Luongo was sixth; Brodeur was first in shutouts with 12, Luongo was sixth with 5. Martin Brodeur continues to be the best goalie in the league in the middle of his thirties. This was arguably the best season of his career. If this award was for the goaltender most valuable to his team, it would be Luongo's award, but it is for the goaltender that was most outstanding. Alright, so I've made it clear that Martin Brodeur deserves to win this award, but I didn't say that I think he will. Luongo has been heralded for years as a great goaltender playing for bad teams, and now that he has finally gotten on a competitive team, the media is loving every second of his success. While the GMs are the ones who vote for this award, I think they will take this into account and Roberto Luongo will win. For this prediction, I hope I am wrong and they choose the actual "most outstanding goaltender" of the season, Martin Brodeur.

Pick: Roberto Luongo

Monday, April 23, 2007

NHL Jeff's Round 2 Predictions











Ryan Miller and the Sabres hope to extend
their journey to Lord Stanley's Cup

As usual, the first round was full of surprises and disappointments...now the winners move on and the losers head to the golf course.

Click here for the full Round 2 Schedule.

NHL Jeff's take on the 2nd Round Match-Ups:

Eastern Conference Semifinals

(1) Buffalo Sabres vs. (6) New York Rangers

Regular Season Series: BUF 4-0

BUF Key Players: R. Miller (G), D. Briere, C. Drury, T. Vanek, B. Campbell, but really, with this team, each player plays an important role.

NYR Key Players: J. Jagr, H. Lundqvist (G), M. Nylander, M. Rozsival, S Avery, B. Shanahan

First of all, don't let the season series fool you because all four of those games were played before the all-star break, which was when the Rangers turned their season around. The Rangers have been hot, and they showed that in the first round by upsetting the Thrashers. While the Sabres won the President's Trophy as the league's top regular season performer, they showed some flaws in their series with the Islanders and will definitely have to step up to take on this Rangers team. Miller-Lundqvist is a great goalie match-up especially considering how much fire power each of them will have to face in this series. Michael Nylander lit it up for New York in round 1 and Jagr played to form. Sean Avery was a huge part of New York's first round success, and was arguably the most valuable player. He was able to stir up the Thrashers to the point at which Ilya Koalchuk fought. If the Rangers are to get by the Sabres, Avery will be a huge part in agitating, the young, skilled, graceful Sabres. Buffalo is capable of getting scoring from each of their lines and they have more defensive depth than they are given credit for. In the end, I'm thinking Buffalo's depth will prevail over the Rangers' hot streak.

Prediction: Sabres in 6.


(2) New Jersey Devils vs. (4) Ottawa Senators

Regular Season Series: NJ 3-1

NJ Key Players: M. Brodeur (G), P. Elias, B. Gionta, S. Gomez, B. Rafalski, Z. Parise

OTT Key Players: R. Emery (G), D. Alfredsson, D. Heatley, J. Spezza, W. Redden, A. Volchenkov

Ottawa showed vs. Pittsburgh that, like the Devils, they too can play a strong defensive system. So, assuming both teams try to utilize this ability, it seems the winner would come from who is able to generate more of an offensive spark. The Sens, despite playing more of a defensive system than usual, still did some great scoring in the first round, and if Dany Heatley (who was rumored to be nursing an ankle injury) returns to form, the Devils will need to watch out even more so. And, don't forget that Ottawa captain Daniel Alfredsson has stepped up his game back to where it used to be... Part of the offensive strategy for the Sens requires getting by NJ star goaltender Martin Brodeur. While Brodeur didn't start the first round at his supreme level, he rebounded and ended the series with strong play. Ray Emery was remarkable for the Senators, and for some reason I don't think he is going to let up. He doesn't have to be the best goalie in the league, he just has to beat the best goalie in the league 4 times in 7 games, and I think it can happen. Their triumph in the first round will likely be a huge boost to the Sens, and not in the over-confident sort of way. Zach Parise and Scott Gomez had great first round numbers for the Devils and will look to continue that. really either of these teams could take this series and possibly win the cup, but ultimately, I think the offensive depth (and overall depth for that matter) of the Ottawa Senators will breakthrough the brick wall that is Martin Brodeur, but it will be close.

Prediction: Sens in 7.


Western Conference Semifinals


(1) Detroit Red Wings vs. (5) San Jose Sharks

Regular Season Series: SJ 3-1

DET Key Players: P. Datsyuk, D. Hasek (G), N. Lidstrom, H. Zetterbeg, J. Franzen

SJ Key Players: J. Thornton, P. Marleau, E. Nabokov (G), C. Rivet, M. Michalek, S. Hannan, J. Cheechoo

In the first round, the Sharks revealed a lot of weaknesses in an extremely talented Nashville team that was supposed to put up a tremendous fight, if not win. Expect San Jose's drive to be equal or greater than that of their first round win. Big guns Joe Thornton and Patrick Marleau had great series, and Milan Michalek continued his vast improvement. Sniper Jonathan Cheechoo cooled off from his tear at the end of the regualr season, but that could possibly attributed to his injury in the first game of the series. Veteran defenseman Craig Rivet stepped up his game and appeared on the scoresheet on many nights and Evgeni Nabokov was solid in net. The Sharks' special teams should have a major impact on this series. Their powerplay was not spectacular against the Predators, and as a team with a great powerplay during the regular season, San Jose will need to improve to beat a Detroit team that is very strong 5-on-5. The Wings surprised many, myself included, and stood the test of the strong, gritty Flames. They proved to be tougher than many gave them credit for. Captain Nicklas Lidstrom showed why he truly is one of the best defenseman in the league by leading the team in points while also anchoring their blueline corps. Most importantly, Pavel Datsyuk learned how to score in the playoffs, and Henrik Zetterberg even contributed some as well. Johan Franzen went from being a minor producer in the regular season to a reliable scorer, but we'll have to see if that was just first round luck. Finally, veteran defensemen Chris Chelios, 45, and Mathieu Schneider, 37, showed that skill can definitely be maintained with age, and don't forget another veteran, goaltender Dominik Hasek, 42. Hasek was spectacular in round one, but we'll have to see if his groin will hold up with the long playoff grind. Both teams are well-rounded, but I have to give the edge in depth to San Jose. If they're young defense can withstand the playoff pressure, I see them taking this one.

Prediction: Sharks in 6.


(2) Anaheim Ducks vs. (3) Vancouver Canucks

Regular Season Series: ANA 3-1

ANA Key Players: S. Niedermayer, C. Pronger, T. Selanne, J.S. Giguere (G), R. Getzlaf, F. Beauchemin

VAN Key Players: R. Luongo (G), D. Sedin, H. Sedin, M. Naslund, M. Ohlund, K. Bieksa, T. Linden

The main question in this series is whether or not Roberto Luongo can steal it for the Canucks, because with the way their offense has been (not) playing, that is what's going to have to happen if they want to win this series. When the Sedin twins get on the scoresheet, the Canucks can win, but they'll need an offensive boost all around to beat a Ducks team that is well rounded with a fire-powered offense and the best defensive tandem in the league. While Niedermayer and Pronger are the key to the Ducks' defense, don't count out Francois Beauchemin. The game he missed in round one was the game Anaheim lost. He has been contributing in many ways for the Ducks, including on the scoresheet. Anaheim didn't generate all that much offense in the first round, but that was due to their changing their system to compete with the defense-first Wild. In this series, look for the Selanne, Kunitz, McDonald line to really step up their production. Ilya Bryzgalov had a great start to the series for Anaheim and Giguere had a great finish and seems to have reclaimed his number one role after missing some time due to family issues. Look for the Ducks to play a similar style to the one they played against Minnesota (a defensive team like the Canucks). They will be sure to capitalize on all of Vancouver's mistakes. I think Luongo has the ability to make this a very close series, but the Ducks well-rounded game will surpass Vancouver's defense-first system.

Prediction: Ducks in 6.


Round 1 Results and how NHL Jeff did with Predictions












Even with Marty Turco's 3 shutouts, the Stars

couldn't get past Luongo and the Canucks.

A quick look back at round 1's winners:

Eastern Conference Results
Buffalo vs. NY Islanders
Prediction: Sabres in 5.
Outcome: Sabres in 5.

New Jersey vs. Tampa Bay
Prediction: Devils in 6.
Outcome: Devils in 6.

Atlanta vs. NY Rangers
Prediction: Thrashers in 6
Outcome: Rangers in 4
The Thrashers' stars just didn't play like stars. Bob Hartley didn't do a great job managing his goaltenders, but the real problem was Marian Hossa. If the Thrashers were going to win this series, he had to be the MVP, and with just 1 point in 4 games, he wasn't even close. Kovalchuk and Kozlov also failed to impress. Atlanta GM Don Waddell is sure going to regret everything he gave up at the deadline only for a first round falter. I should add, the Rangers were hot coming in, and Henrik Lundqvist continued to be amazing. Nylander shone brighter than ever before and Jagr and the rest of the Rangers contributed as well.

Ottawa vs. Pittsburgh
Prediction: Penguins in 7
Outcome: Senators in 5
the Penguins showed their lack of experience in this series. Crosby and Pit's other young stars all continued to play well, but they just didn't have that extra edge and depth to overcome such a strong Ottawa team that was playing a great defensive system to shut down the Pens' explosive offense. Other than game 1, Fleury was great, and the Pens have a bright future ahead of them. Ray Emery was extremely sharp for the Senators, while Captain Daniel Alfredsson returned to his elite form.

Western Conference Results
Detroit vs. Calgary
Prediction: Calgary in 7
Outcome: Detroit in 6
Calgary definitely had their fair share of chances to take some more games in this series, but they just couldn't capitalize and were still terrible on the road. Miikka Kiprusoff, often hung out to dry during the series, was the only consistent performer on a team that never really reached its true potential. First year coach Jim Playfair's future is up for question as it should be. At numerous times during the series (such as the Jamie McLennan incident) he failed to maintain control of his team. Hasek was great for Detroit and Datsyuk and Zetterberg finally produced in the playoffs. We'll see how long it lasts.

Anaheim vs. Minnesota
Prediction: Anaheim in 6
Outcome: Anaheim in 5

Vancouver vs. Dallas
Prediction: Vancouver in 6
Outcome: Vancouver in 7
The Stars can thank Marty Turco for making this a long series. He was beyond spectacular and the 3 games that they won all came in the form of shutouts. Luongo was also amazing and as expected this was a goaltender's duel. The team that was able to bring a little bit of offense was able to pull off the win. Vancouver will have to find a lot more offense and find it fast if they want to put up a fight against Anaheim.

Nashville vs. San Jose
Prediction: San Jose in 7
Outcome: San Jose in 5
Nashville was very inconsistent. Forsberg was not what GM David Poile hoped for when he traded away a large portion of the Preds' future. He began the series with intensity, but was easily frustrated and took too many bad penalties at the wrong times. Injuries to Steve Sullivan and Martin Erat hurt them, but San Jose just plain outworked Nashville, showed more depth, and better offensive ability.

NHL Jeff's Record
: 5-3 (2 wins with exact game counts)

Monday, April 09, 2007

'Tis the Season to be Jolly: NHL Playoff Season


It's been a long break, but NHLNow.com is back for the most exciting season of the year: NHL Playoff Season. The battle for Lord Stanley's Cup is on, and with the depth in this year's playoffs, it seems to be any of the 16 playoff contenders' to lose. For each round of the Playoffs, NHL Jeff will analyze every match-up and follow with his prediction of the winner and in how many games.

Rod Brind'Amour's 'Canes won't get a

chance to defend their championship.

NHLNow.com: The one stop for all of the Stanley Cup Playoff info you need!

Click here for the full Round 1 Schedule.


NHL Jeff's take on the 1st Round Match-Ups:

Eastern Conference Quarterfinals

(1) Buffalo Sabres vs. (8) New York Islanders

Regular Season Series: BUF 3-1

BUF Key Players: R. Miller (G), D. Briere, C. Drury, T. Vanek, B. Campbell, but really, with this team, each player plays an important role.

NYI Key Players: R. DiPietro (G) (should he return form injury), W. Dubielewicz (G) (should DiPietro not return), R. Smyth, J. Blake, M.A. Bergeron

Buffalo is a team that many see as having a great chance to win the Cup, and with their league-leading offense and superb goaltending from Ryan Miller, I am one of the many. The Isles had a great stretch-run and an exciting final victory over the Devils to squeak into the playoffs, but I think their luck ends there. If they want any chance to surpass the mighty Sabres, they will have to hope for concussed star goaltender Rick DiPietro to return, or Wade
Dubielewicz will have to be this year's Cam Ward.

Prediction: Sabres in 5.


(2) New Jersey Devils vs. (7) Tampa Bay Lightning

Regular Season Series: TB 3-1

NJ Key Players: M. Brodeur (G), P. Elias, B. Gionta, S. Gomez, B. Rafalski

TB Key Players: J. Holmqvist, V. Lecavalier, M. St. Louis, B. Richards, D. Boyle

Whenever Martin Brodeur (3 Cup Rings) is in a playoff series, it's hard to bet against him. The Lightning are lacking in the goaltending department, with Johan Holmqvist beating out Marc Denis for the starting position. If Holmqvist can show signs of greatness, the Bolts offense, led by "the Big 3" will carry them. They have a steady blueline, anchored by Dan Boyle, but play a much more open system than that of the Devils. Lecavalier and St. Louis both had career years and were each in the top 5 in scoring. If they can keep that up against the likes of Brodeur and Brad Richards turns it on for the playoffs, the Lightning will have a chance.
The bottom line of this series: Will Tampa Bay's scorching hot offense be able to prevail over New Jersey's seamless defensive system and their rock-solid goaltender?

I think not.

Prediction: NJ in 6.


(3) Atlanta Thrashers vs. (6) New York Rangers

Regular Season Series: ATL 3-1

ATL Key Players: M. Hossa, K. Lehtonen (G), I. Kovalchuk, S. Kozlov, N. Havelid, A. Zhitnik

NYR Key Players: J. Jagr, H. Lundqvist (G), B. Shanahan, P. Mara

While the Rangers and King Henrik have been hot lately, I can't bet against the Thrashers' offense. Marian Hossa had an MVP-worthy season. Kari Lehtonen may not have shown great consistency this year, but I'll go out on a limb and say that it's his time to shine. Jagr had an off year for his standards, but he is healthy and ready to go. If the Rangers want to stand a chance they'll have to count on his and Brendan Shanahan's leadership and Lundqvist's goaltending. I haven't seen the same passion in Jagr this season as last, and ATL gave up way too much at the deadline not to make it past the first round.

Prediction: Thrashers in 6.


(4) Ottawa Senators vs. (5) Pittsburgh Penguins

Regular Season Series: PIT 3-1

PIT Key Players: S. Crosby, M. A. Fleury (G), S. Gonchar, R. Whitney, E. Malkin, G. Roberts, M. Recchi, J. Staal

OTT Key Players: D. Heatley, R. Emery (G), D. Alfredsson, J. Spezza, W. Redden, A. Volchenkov

This is a tough call and by far the most exciting first round match-up. I can't see Crosby faltering under the pressure, and while I think Fleury's inability to hold the leads will hurt the Pens in future rounds, I can't see them heading out this early. Ottawa has a lot of fire power, but so do the Pens. If Heatley and Spezza continue where they left off in the regular season, and Alfredsson comes back to life, the Sens can easily match if not better the Penguins' offense. That said, the most important thing in this series may end up being goaltending. If so, I'd say Emery wins, but with all the passion in Pitt's locker room and veterans like Recchi and Roberts to hold things together, I can't see them letting up in the first round. This may be a prediction from the heart as opposed to the mind, but I'm gonna have to roll with it:

Prediction: Pens in 7.


Western Conference Quarterfinals


(1) Detroit Red Wings vs. (8) Calgary Flames

Regular Season Series: Tie 2-2

DET Key Players: P. Datsyuk, D. Hasek (G), N. Lidstrom, H. Zetterbeg (pending injury status), T. Bertuzzi

CGY Key Players: J. Iginla, M. Kiprusoff (G), A. Tanguay, D. Phaneuf, Robyn Regehr

It's may be hard for some to imagine the Wings faltering again after their last few playoff appearances, but they just don't have a team built for the playoffs. Drawing a team like Calgary for the first round is not good for Detroit. Calgary is a very tough, gritty team that will likely wear out the somewhat soft Red Wings. Bertuzzi is a key because he is a tough guy GM Ken Holland brought in to try to toughen the team up. This is where we'll see how he did. A huge factor in this series will also be goaltending. This year, both of these teams can score. Miikka Kiprusoff didn't have the career season that he did last year, but he is still one of the best goalies in the game and has shown that he is capable of carrying a team through the playoffs. If Dominik Hasek can maintain his health, he could win this series for the Wings. Either way, when I see these two teams on a sheet of paper, despite the Wings amazing record, I just don't think they'll last in a seven game series with this Calgary team.

Prediction: Flames in 7.


(2) Anaheim Ducks vs. (7) Minnesota Wild

Regular Season Series: Tie 2-2

ANA Key Players: S. Niedermayer, C. Pronger, T. Selanne, J.S. Giguere (G), A. McDonald

MIN Key Players: N. Backstrom (G), M. Gaborik, B. Rolston, K. Johnsson, P. Demitra

Ever since July when Ducks GM Brian Burke traded for Chris Pronger, the Ducks have been looked at as a very strong Stanley Cup contender, and they played that way during the regular season. They have, arguably, the 2 best defensemen in the league and have the ability to have one on the ice at all times. With all of that said, the Ducks still have offensive punch and great goaltending, with J.S. Giguere solidifying himself as the team's number one. If the young guns can take something from the experienced veterans, the Ducks will be in the finals. The Wild are looked at by many as a dark horse if they can get by Anaheim. They will try to ride hot goaltender Niklas Backstrom, who was great down the stretch, and if he falters, Manny Fernandez is more than capable of re-grabbing the reins. Marian Gaborik and Pavol Demitra have great chemistry, and Brian Rolston has become the heart of this team, but I think their time is up.

Prediction: Ducks in 6.


(3) Vancouver Canucks vs. (6) Dallas Stars

Regular Season Series: Tie 2-2

VAN Key Players: R. Luongo (G), D. Sedin, H. Sedin, M. Naslund, M. Ohlund, K. Bieksa

DAL Key Players: M. Turco (G), S. Zubov, M. Modano, B. Morrow, M. Ribeiro

There probably won't be too many goals in this series. Both of the teams have become extremely defensive-minded this year and are two of the 3 lowest goal-scoring teams in the playoffs. If one of these teams' offenses is able to show some extra spark in this series, that team is likely to win. The Stars will look for increased contruinution from Mike Modano and continued production from Mike Ribeiro and Ladislav Nagy while the Canucks will look for the Sedin twins to maintain their levels of play. Canucks captain Markus Naslund must return to the prolific scorer he once was if this team is to go far in the playoffs. Most importantly though, both teams rely heavily on their elite goaltenders. Marty Turco is a great goaltender, and I would say that this is his year to finally show that he can be the same goalie he is in the regular season during the playoffs--if he wasn't playing Roberto Luongo. Luongo, with his Vezina-worthy season, is the reason the Canucks are where they are. Battle of the goaltenders.

Prediction: Vancouver in 6.


(4) Nashville Predators vs. (5) San Jose Sharks

Regular Season Series: NSH 3-1

NSH Key Players: P. Kariya, S. Sullivan (pending injury status), K. Timmonen, T. Vokooun (G)/C. Mason (G), J.P. Dumont, D. Hamhuis

SJ Key Players: J. Thornton, P. Marleau, E. Nabokov (G), S. Hannan, J. Cheechoo, M.E. Vlasic, K. McLaren, M. Carle

If Joe Thornton can keep up his production during the playoff grind, that will be huge for the Sharks. Jonathan Cheechoo has started to come to life at just the right time, and the possibility of bringing back the magic between he and Thornton is a remarkable one. Captain Patrick Marleau will be counted on in all aspects of the game. This team has two great goaltenders. It seems that Vesa Toskala's injury led to Evgeni Nabokov claiming the number one spot in goal, and Toskala is more than capable of filling in. SJ also has a well-rounded defense and added some veteran depth with Craig Rivet. Kyle McLaren will be looked to in the physical department to rough up some of Nashville's skilled players. The Predators are a team that led the Western Conference for a large part of the season--and then to top it off, they added Peter Forsberg. If Forsberg remains healthy, he could tear up the playoffs and be the team's MVP. In 2002, he took off the whole season due to injury, then led the playoffs in scoring despite his team only making it to the Conference Finals. Paul Kariya can definitely score as can Steve Sullivan if he returns from injury. While the team's defense corps has no stars, Captain Kimmo Timonen, Dan Hamhuis, and youngin' Shea Weber have played with consistency. The Preds have two number one goaltenders in Tomas Vokoun and Chris Mason. Their numbers are nearly identical. Coach Barry Trotz will likely go with the more experienced in Vokoun, but should he lose even one game (with more than a couple goals against), I would imagine Mason will be given a chance. Overall, Nashville has a great team, and another early playoff exit seems like it will be a step back, but I can't bet against San Jose. They've been hot and have such a well-rounded team.

Prediction: Sharks in 7.